Archive for the 'ACC' Category

ACC, ABB, BHEL, BAJAJAUTO, GRASIM, DRREDDY Panch Tattva points after results and now

November 17, 2007

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

ACC @ 1038 (18/10/07) gets 1042 panch-tattva points and is good for purchase till next result.
(@1044 on 16 Nov 07 it gets 1048 points and same strategy.)

ABB @1436 (261007) gets 727 panch-tattva points and may be sold off
for the time being , buy back on good correction in a few strokes.
(@1647 0n 16 Nov 07 it gets 756 points and may be sold off only at this stage for buy back wait till next quarterly result)

BHEL @2615 (291007) gets 846 panch-tattva points and may be sold for
good till the next advice, do not buy on correction even.
(@2786 on 16 Nov 07 it gets 880 points but still to be sold and waited till it gets signal to buy in terms of panch-tattva points. This carries too eskewed risk reward ratio hence risk averse people may not touch it.)

BAJAJAUTO @ 2507 (19/10/07) gets 872 panch-tattva points and should be
sold now and bought on correction.
(@2315 on 16 Nov 07 it gets 908 points and may be bought moderately and added more on declines but profit should be booked on part qty on jumps.)
.
GRASIM @3842 (291007) gets 1139 panch-tattva points and may be sold for the time being and bought on correction for up to next result.
(@ 3821 on 16 Nov 07 it gets 1114 points and you may have already entered at the lower rates after selling as price touched point lower than 3500. Repeat the strategy.)

DRREDDY @630 (241007) gets 851 panch-tattva points and may be sold for
now, buy later on declines.
(@620 on 16 Nov 07 gets 870 points and sell on surges and buy on declines and retain a small part.)

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

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Market Matrix: NOT for BULLS I

October 29, 2007

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

I am neither a bull nor a bear but somebody who looks at possibilities. Way back in 2000 Infosys was selling 16500/- per share ex-bonus. At that stage the m/cap for the same was 65000 crs and the sales were around 4000 crs per year. I told my friends that how an m/cap of 65k crs can be serviced by a sale of just 4k crs where as the interest on 65k crs at only 10% would work out to 6500 crs. The answer used to be ‘आप नहीं समझते, ग्रोथ भी तो पचास टका हो सकता है सेल्स में’. What happened that the company maintained a growth rate of above 30% on an average through out but the share price is below 16500/- in 2007 (considering one split and two bonuses in ratio of one to one since 2000). This is the magic of selling dreams. The one who sold such dreams in almost all leading IT companies (the well-known K-factor) is himself out of scene notwithstanding the money banks and other institutions lost. Those who have seen the Harshad times do know the logic given by him i.e. the replacement cost theory when ACC was sold for 10000/- a piece. ACC is selling 50% higher than at that time (after bonus and rights are considered) but the man had to suffer a very bad phase in his life and is no more alive. The sufferers included the then FM, the PM now (not for wrongdoing but for failing to contain the damage to Indian economy) and the present FM (for getting his name sullied for none of his fault). The time factor and the price/return mechanism do not spare any body. The simple mathematical equation has to work. 10000/- rupees in 1992 at compounded return of just 12% work out to 60000/- rupees today. Even after the dream run for so many years and India becoming an Asian Tiger, the ACC has just been able to give back 15000/- in terms of value. You may be wondering after all what I have to say in fact. The ones with some understanding of numbers and macro level possible limits would understand what I mean to convey.

The above scenario is being played out under the leadership of LT along with company of a few more scrips. It also has more than 1.25 lac crs of m/cap while the sales are just under 20k crs (not enough to give back nominal return of just 2% on the m/cap in terms of profits). The Planning commission has just given the target of Rs1.50 lac crs investment in infrastructure in 11th plan and if the LT gets the whole work awarded the it can make a profit of just Rs.30 K crs in five years and the m/cap will be expected to be Rs. 3 lac crs . Can you digest the magnitude of expectation from it? The Rome was not built in a day, Gentlemen, please develop your own understanding of numbers and economy, if you want to stay in market as somebody who can make out where the limit has been stretched beyond the wildest imagination. Who are at the back of it is not known yet. But they will have capacity to influence the market only so long as their identity is not known. The day their identity is known the game would be over and who knows who will become answerable and who would bear the brunt. I am happy the public is not being fooled by the rhetoric. The broader market has been immune to the invitation extended by the bull cartel to join. They (the cartel) will not have the capacity to take the entire market on the course of Nifty or Sensex. If they do so, they are sure, the Indian promoter group and the investor group will load them with every piece of paper tradable.

The genius of Indian businessmen is not limited. It can create a business of same type and size for one-fifth the cost. Why would they not accept the largesses so liberally coming their way and hand over their respective companies on decorated platter? The License Raj restriction are not there any more to curb their future effort in creating newer company where there in no unwanted burden to be carried like the employees of little competence and caliber. Where the relocation will be at the right point and where the synergies would be taken care of. I can speak endlessly but need not for there are many who will catch the hint.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

ACC @ 1038 (18/10/07) Post Result

October 19, 2007

ACC @ 1038 (18/10/07) gets 1042 panch-tattva points and is good for purchase till next result.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Panch Tattva: Update: ACC, BHEL

September 3, 2007

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

Please note the Panch Tattva updated points for the following two Nifty scrips which have had a decent run lately but require assessment afresh:

ACC @1071(03/08/07) gets 1059 points and may be sold off on surges and waited for further action till the next result.

BHEL @1940 (03/08/07) gets 894 points and may be sold off for it does not qualify for retention due to excessive speculative interest.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Panch Tattva: Post Result: ACC, BIOCON, KIRLOSOIL, MRF at CMP on 18 Apr 2007

April 19, 2007

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

Please note the following Panch Tattva post result points for four companies:

ACC @783/-(19/04/07) gets 1103 points and should be regularly bought, you may book profits in excess of 10% on part quantity but rest should be held until next result.

KIRLOSOIL @262/-(19/04/07) gets 959 points and is very good to buy on declines.

MRF @3621/-(19/04/07) gets 995 points and is very good for buying on declines.

BIOCON @508/-(19/04/07) gets 1047 points and you should buy it for medium to long term and remain guided by Panch Tattva advice.

RBI may consider putting a check on the ECB borrowing by the realty sector. This sector has raised $802 million in 2006-07 and some $10 billion worth of sanctions are in the pipeline. This thinking in my opinion is faulted, as any curb here would result in lesser supply in the market of built properties. Roughly, it may be said that each million of investment in this sector would create a supply of 3million worth. This additional worth would come from value addition, which will be shared, by labour, artisans, architects and others. Why on earth when an entrepreneur is seeing an opportunity and the lender is coming forward, the RBI should be intervening. I have earlier said that the govt. should neither guarantee the loans nor be a party to agreements and then what problem they are supposing. The economic upheavals will take place in any case, when time comes. The RBIs wisdom may not prevent it and equally it may be responsible for it. But the power drunk think, if not used than what use the power. I again call for the free currency regime.

Tatas would be funding their $12.9 billion CORUS purchase by raising equity money and debt in ratio of about 50:50 against earlier planned. They already have $640 million through conversion of warrants by affiliated entities. A further $2.4 billion would come from further issues planned. The conversion of shares at around 480/- per share is OK for the promoter group but it is detrimental for the other shareholders. For right issue per share cost is slated to be 300/- . Tatas would be raising debt of $6.1 billion. All this adds up to some comfort from the angle of safety but the share price of Tata Steel would remain range bound for a year or two and no great returns may be expected in remaining invested here. It is best to keep buying around 480/- and keep selling above 520/-. SAIL will have better investing times but the price is already very high for comfort.

India’s steel production is slated to be of the order of 120 million tonnes by 2016. You may note that this level of production was achieved by USA in seventies and they are now producing 98 million tonnes while China is producing 418 million tonnes and Japan 118 million tonnes. In my opinion India should be going with some what lesser speed a s the steel production capacity world wide is enough and requires replacement of the high energy consuming plants only. Further India is such a country, which can create its equivalent infrastructure at lower steel consumption levels. Too much of urbanisation is in any case not right thing to do. Connecting villages by motorable good roads is more important in India. In fact every part of the country in inhabitable and should remain so. Telecom and television have now made it possible to live in countryside even for the elite and the important.

Mobile Phone base in India has touched 149.62 million connections as on 31/12/06.The revenue per user has been moderating spelling difficult times for the operators. The two large players i.e. Bharti and Reliance have 37.14 million and 28 million users with them respectively.

China now has 140 pairs of high-speed trains (200 km/hr) running on its trunk routes. India had run its first high speed train on Delhi Howrah route way back in seventies clocking the speed of 160 km/hr. It is note worthy how far behind we have been left just for keeping fares low for the public. Paradoxically public suffered immeasurably for it by giving on monies to running staff and booking clerks and the agents. Finding lack of surplus money Railways could not add capacities and could not modernise in time. I have first hand knowledge how the quota is sold by the Railway officials for which the money passes many a hands. It is every body’s knowledge that the season time tickets used to be sold as soon as windows opened. Now the things have improved but only slightly and one may not easily undertake railway journey at short notice. The competing modes of transport i.e. road travel and air travel although costing the nation much more in real terms are some responsible for giving some relief to traveling masses. Their is case for making railways free to charge as much as can be paid by the market and utilise the surplus in improving the traveling conditions and creating more capacity on routes with demand on them Learn from China in this respect at least.

General Motors must have made the Maruti people lose their sleep. They have announced introduction of small car models under Chevrolet Spark brand name at a very competitive pricing between Rs three lacs and Rs four lacs. The Halol plant in Gujarat would take away a major chunk of market with Maruti and Hyundai. Gujarat would be going for General Motors’ cars in a big way if the there is pricing differential as the buyer in Gujarat is very cost conscious.Also Gujarat may demonstrate that it is the most cost effective and peaceful place for making cars. It is only surprising that the industry has been so reluctant to come here so far.

The paid TV channel market would be worth Rs 42 k crores by 2011. This will be making India a very important content providing nation. Sports, music, art etc will be providing career opportunities like never before. Academies catering to these should start coming up in an organised way with funding arrangement possible through banks even for such studies and courses.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market