Market Martix – Nifty is marching ahead and has nearly reached 4500 level.

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

UPA has won the confidence vote but only after a drama was shown on the floor of parliament. Three BJP MPs came with currency notes worth one crore saying that this is part of the money committed to be paid for abstaining from voting. Such happening was anticipated as the business houses have very thick involvement in politics, particularly Ambani brothers. Nehru had feared this very thing that monopolistic size of business houses will be detrimental to Indian political environment. Secondly, when the people in positions commanding right to exercise power like Ministers and Govt. employees from top to bottom are getting favours and monies and the parliamentarians have been powerless to check them, why would they not be inclined to barter power of the kind they come to have occasionally for other things including moneys.The democracy here is still delivering as this is big country, the democracy has failed in smaller countries. The small yet democratic nations of Europe are successful due to universal education and no poverty, also they have personal honesty.

The Nifty is marching ahead and has nearly reached 4500 level. With crude down to 127 dollars and political uncertainty over, it may do the Indian Rope trick in the opening session of trading today. Now, you may have appreciated why I asked to be invested a long time ago inspite of downward signals. After the markets have gone down below reasonable values due to sentimental reasons or due to fear, they rebound with a speed that nobody can board the train without possibility of hurting themselves. Also in frenzied atmosphere you can hardly grab the right scrips at right prices. This way either the whole bull run is missed or you carry a risky basket of shares. The best time to build afresh a good portfolio is when the reasonable levels have breached and the prices are still in downward mode and not when the markets look up after bad fall. Likewise when the optimism is at its highest like in Dec 07, it is best sell entirely and not deal scrip-wise.

The panch-tattva recommendations are proving to be good guide, you may have noticed it in this month of July when results pour in. I expect you to take this advice before committing your large funds in any scrip or set of scrips.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market

Market Matrix – Sectoral Recommendations after Q1

By krsna Khandelwal – A veteran market analyst

Friends,

So far, 229 companies have announced results for 1st quarter and the sales are up by 27 p.c.and PBT and PAT are up by 11.5 and 10.8 p.c. respectively. This is very good showing and should the tempo be maintained like this, the market would not to have need to look back. A slight change in economic atmosphere would make it run at top speed. The good prospects after a inflationary period is the best thing that may happen to markets.In case of Indian companies of larger size, the fact is that they all have very little borrowings and interest out go is minimal. This would not have been the case but for dream profits made by most of them. Third phenomenon also caps the down side for the leading companies.

The FMCG,Pharma and Telecom as also media companies have no fear of any kind and possibly have expending markets.

The auto sector has to be on slow wicket for some more time to come.

Banking sector is OK for the time being as well as OK for medium term. Metals sector should either be delivering a very handsome return over the year or two but are prone to be affected by input constraints and realisations getting poorer than present times, so metal sector remains slightly uncertain.

The cement companies should remain good investment due to present prices being on lower side compared to the values they have.

The infrastructure companies as also the big realty companies have become investment worthy.

Hotel industry does not have immediate scope hence should be left out.

Oil and Gas sector should be invested in, it may gain over time.

IT sector companies of big size are near their safe values and would be OK from the angle of dividend yield.

Consumer Durable sector calls for only company specific investment.

The cap-goods sector has scope of moderate type and also is good for company specific investment.

Hari Om

BIRDINFO Stock Rx – A prescription for stock market